The important export terminal of the Libyan National Petroleum Company is again controlled by armed groups, which makes the country's export level more uncertain. At the same time, Canada's largest oil sands facility experienced production problems, which helped US crude oil prices rebound strongly. In addition, the U.S. State Department ordered all companies to reduce all imports from Iran to zero starting from the month, and crude oil prices were boosted by a sharp rise. According to foreign media reports, U.S. State Department officials said that the Allies are required to reduce the amount of crude oil imported from Iran to zero by the 4th of June. If you still buy Iranian crude oil after the 4th of October, the company will face secondary sanctioBloomberg crude oil spotns.
Summary: Zhou's war of words between US President Trump and Iran continued to escalate, but this tension did not give a sustained boost to oil prices. International oil prices rose by about USD/barrel after repeated shocks on Monday, but then a reversed V reversal occurred and the price closed down under pressure. But many analysts still believe that the risk of a military conflict between the United States and Iran is rising, which may lead to the forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This will hinder oil exports in the Middle East, and crude oil prices are facing upward threats.
Crude oil prices rose by nearly US$4 in April 208. The editor believes that there are reasons. First, OPEC's remarks on production cuts and extensions continue to benefit international crude oil prices. Secondly, both OPEC monthly report and IEA monthly report revealed good news, which supports the price of spot crude oil in the long term. Finally, Trump's uncertain risks often make trouble. For example, trade risks weigh on the U.S. dollar and the restart of Iran sanctions detonated concerns about supply shortages.
Analysts pointed out that once the United States withdraws from the Iran nuclear agreement, as a major oil producer in the world, Iran’s crude oil exports may be restricted, and the oil market supply uncertainty may increase. The imposition of new sanctions on Iran may push oil prices up to 5 per barrel. Dollar.
JPMorgan Chase stated that successive threats of trade wars and falling asset prices have raised questions about the extent to which tariff measures will harm the global economy. A moderate-intensity trade conflict may reduce the global economic growth rate by at least 0.5%, which will then result in tightening of financial conditions and an impact on market confidence.
The situation in the Middle East has always been the focus of global financial markets, and it has also been closely related to the rise and fall of international oil prices. This is not because the US Treasury Department announced on February 9 that it would lift the sanctions against Rusal and other companies. At the same time, US President Trump decided to withdraw troops from Syria, and the market believed that the Bloomberg crude oil spotUnited States would further show favor to Russia on the Middle East issue.
In terms of production, since the shale oil revolution began in 2009, the efficiency of new wells has been continuously improved, and the corresponding production has also grown rapidly, which has exceeded the production of traditional oil wells. EIA data shows that US crude oil production currently reaches 0.7 million barrels per day. At the same time, U.S. oil and gas resources are also actively exporting, with net imports declining.
Summary: A representative of the Libyan National Petroleum Corporation said on Monday that the company's daily output will be 570,000 barrels from 280,000 barrels in February. In the context of OPEC's agreement to increase production, tight crude oil supply may push up oil prices in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to exceed $80.
The fall in the dollar is a major factor in the rise in oil prices. According to foreign media, after nearly 0 hours of talks in Brussels, EU leaders reached an agreement on immigration, avoiding a crisis at the EU summit. This news triggered a rise in the euro, which led to a weaker dollar. The dollar fell by about 0.6% in the day.