The financial blog Zerohedge commented on US API data for the week, saying that API data showed that crude oil inventories recorded unexpected growth, and WTI crude oil fell below the $67 mark, ending the previous range of oscillation mode. Crude oil inventories have fluctuated between increases and decreases in the past few weeks. Data last week showed that gasoline inventories fell more than expected, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased. Cushing crude oil inventories increaseCrude oil contract specification margin NYMEXd more than expected.
Since the production restriction agreement of OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries came into effect, international oil prices have risen by 40%. After OPEC released its monthly oil market report on the 4th, international oil prices continued to rise. As of the close of trading on the 4th, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.26 to close at $70.96 per barrel, an increase of 0.7%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in July rose by US dollars to close at 72 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 44%.
Reuters data shows that this month's major Asian buyers' offshore crude oil imports will hit a record level, which will greatly ease the huge demand. By the end of April, it will be possible to purchase more than 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, a record high. This import volume accounts for 0% of global consumption and also exceeds one-third of overall Asian demand. If calculated at the price of 75 US dollars per barrel, this means that more than 20 billion US dollars will be spent every day.
The growth of US dollar credit will help emerging market oil importing countries cope with rising crude oil prices. Oil prices may be at least in the range of $60/barrel to $70/barrel, which will trigger demand for crude oil futures from financial traders. These traders seek to profit easily through so-called arbitrage trading. Declining inventories will only strengthen the oil market's futures premium, that is, the recent price is higher than the forward price, which in turn encourages arbitrage trading.
At present, the crude oil market is highly concerned about OPEC’s June meeting. The market is worried that OPEC’s increased production is bad for oil prices. Currently, the oil price is temporarily slowing down due to the sharp decline in US EIA stocks. However, if OPEC increases production, today’s oil prices may fall back to the $60 mark.
The rise in oilCrude oil contract specification margin NYMEX prices may eventually be affected by the recent strength of the US dollar. A stronger U.S. dollar tends to hurt overseas demand for U.S. dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil. However, despite the strong rebound of the US dollar, the price of crude oil has remained at a high level recently.
The data shows that the monthly crude oil trading volume of ICE209 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 27,400, and the open interest of Brent crude oil on the 2nd decreased by 297 lots.