Choosing to ignore U.S. sanctions and reduce purchases of U.S. oil sent a fairly clear signal: It will not be forced to cooperate with U.S. policies and is willing to help Iran as long as it gets some rewards. In recent years, Iranian relations have become increasingly close. Changes in the situation may promote the strengthening of relations between the two countries and strengthenLifting the U.S. crude oil export ban Iran’s determination to resist the United States.
Behind the narrowing of the spread, it is naturally inseparable from traders' crazy arbitrage trading. The changes in fundamentals have given these eye-catching spread arbitrageurs a breakthrough. Data released by the ICE European Futures Exchange showed that Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $8 to $74 on Monday. The WTI crude oil futures for delivery in August were the exact opposite, rising by $0.6 to $674 per barrel. The total trading volume is almost three times the 00-day average of crude oil trading volume.
In terms of crude oil prices, EIA predicts that in 208 US WTI crude oil prices will be US$695/barrel, higher than the previous estimate of US$65/barrel; WTI crude oil prices are expected to be US$604/barrel in 209, which is also higher than the previously expected US$695/barrel. .
The fall in the dollar is a major factor in the rise in oil prices. According to foreign media, after nearly 0 hours of talks in Brussels, EU leaders reached an agreement on immigration, avoiding a crisis at the EU summit. This news triggered a rise in the euro, which led to a weaker dollar. The dollar fell by about 0.6% in the day.
In addition to the conversion of long and short forces, the price of spot crude oil has also exceeded the price of futures, indicating that the recent long speculation has led to excessive capital influx. With the recent decline in oil prices, long positions or reduced positions have further triggered the market. The panic may lead to a further drop in oil prices.
After the extremely eye-catching EIA data was released overnight, oil prices rose by more than 2%. However, high production in the United StatesLifting the U.S. crude oil export ban is still the biggest hidden danger in the oil market, and global demand is also showing signs of slowing down. On Friday, both U.S. and cloth oils gave up their gains. The cloth oil once fell below the 66 US dollar/barrel mark, a drop of nearly 0.4%. The drop was about 0.4%.