Non-agricultural data and crude oil are closely related. ThCurrent international crude oil pricese high non-agricultural employment data proves the healthy development of the US job market, and the increase in the employment rate indicates the prosperity of the US economy. This will lead to the rise of the US dollar. In most cases, the trend of crude oil and the US dollar is negatively correlated.
Officials in Iran and Algeria have criticized the increase in production in the past few weeks. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil has fallen sharply, and the production of Angola's crude oil has also seen depression. Libya and Nigeria have reached the ceiling of short-term production. Security factors will also interfere with supply. Moreover, within the OPEC framework, Libya and Nigeria do not have an official production cap.
According to the fifth provisional appropriation bill in fiscal year 208 passed by the US Congress on February 9th, the US federal government can operate normally until 0:00 AM Eastern U.S. East at 2 PM Beijing time this Saturday. With the voting in the House of Representatives and the Senate getting closer to the weekend deadline, the risk of the US government shutting down has risen again.
OPEC uses the 5-year average inventory of OECD countries as the target of whether the oil market is balanced. With the global crude oil production lower than the five-year average inventory and the gradual expansion of market demand, crude oil supply has begun to be in short supply. At the same time, the continuous decline in Venezuelan production and the production gap caused by Iran or sanctions have further expanded the trend of supply shortages. The price of oil continues to rise.
According to Korean media, since the United States imposed sanctions on Iran, international oil prices have continued to rise, and South Korean gasoline and diesel prices have also continued to rise. After South Korea abandoned Iranian oil, it switched to increasing imports of Dubai oil, but now the price of imported Dubai oil has reached US$89, a month-on-month increase of US$2.
Iran is an important crude oil supplier in the Middle East and OPEC’s third-largest crude oil producer. Therefore, it has a significant impact on the global oil market. Once sanctions are restarted, it will inevitably affect the country’s Current international crude oil pricescrude oil exports and bring about oil prices. Effective boost.
Last night’s API inventory data was mediocre. Crude oil prices eventually barely held the $65 line. According to Dow Jones’s June 9, analysts and traders surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected that the data released by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday would Shows that US crude oil inventories fell last week. The average analysts and traders surveyed expected that in the week ending June 5, US crude oil inventories would fall by 2.5 million barrels. All analysts expect a decline in crude oil inventories, with forecasts ranging from a decrease of 0 million barrels to a decrease of 500,000 barrels.
So in general, if the United States continues to act, it will probably trigger a strong rebound in Russia. The most important thing is that if Russia ends production cuts ahead of schedule and joins the battle with the United States in the crude oil market, it will further stimulate OPEC to end production cuts early. Because in the face of the two major oil-producing countries competing for the market, OPEC’s single-handed reduction in production is obviously difficult to support. Perhaps this year it may be able to maintain its promise to maintain production, but it may be difficult to say next year. Moreover, there are also previous news that OPEC has indicated that it is currently reducing production. The goal has been achieved, and there are voices in Iran that there is no need to cut production at the moment. Therefore, the fate of future crude oil production cuts is likely to end due to the crude oil competition between the United States and Russia. At that time, crude oil prices may face endless declines again.