In addition to US shale oil, the market is also worried that other major oil-producing countries will increase crude oil production. Russian Energy Minister Novak reiterated on Friday that OPEC+ will discuss the relaxation of restrictions at the June meeting. Saudi Energy Minister Fcme crude oil pricealih also said that our goal is to seek a balance, not to over-correct the oil market supply.
With the issue of the Iran nuclear agreement and the US plan to move the embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on May 4, the Iraqi general election, the Syrian issue, etc., all seem to herald new sudden changes in the Middle East situation in May. node. In this regard, Sun Degang analyzed that since the end of 207, with the decline of the Islamic State, the geopolitical contradiction between major powers has risen to the main contradiction. The emergence of these problems in mid-May may lead to the escalation of the cold war in the Middle East into a hot war.
However, investors are still concerned about the OPEC production increase plan of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The organization agreed on Friday to increase production by approximately 0 million barrels per day, of which OPEC member states will increase production by approximately 700,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production increase will be allocated to Russia.
Wang Xiao, head of crude oil research at Guotai Junan Futures, said that the current price reflects the uncertainty of the Iranian issue. Investors worry that as Iran takes a tougher stance against the United States, Iran’s supply issue will face challenges again. But Wang Xiao said that if worries about new sanctions ease, oil prices may fall.
While the export volume has decreased, the US crude oil production has continued to increase. The EIA report shows that as of the week of October 2, the US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.49 million barrels to 6.4 billion barrels, while US oil exports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day compared to last week. . U.S. oil production has remained at a high level of 0 million barrels per day this year, but the decline in oil exports will inevitably lead to an increase in oil inventories and ultimately a decline in oil prices.
At present, as the economic and trade situation between the two sides eases, US crude oil is tentatively entering. According to ship tracking data compiled by Reuters, three tankers carrying 940,000 barrels of crude oil are heading from the United States and will arrive in February. It is expected that buyers will only import a small amount of US crude ocme crude oil priceil, after all, the economic and trade situation between the two sides is still in a period of correction.
Iran had previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts said that although the United States has troops stationed there, it is difficult for Iran to block the strait, but the deteriorating situation between Iran and the United States means that the flow and transportation of crude oil is at great risk.