Brent crude oil fell Elliot Wave Crude Oil Analysisby US$0.26 to US$795 per barrel. The global index contract hit US$797, the highest since July. US crude oil fell 0.4 dollars to 65 dollars a barrel. Last week, Brent crude oil rose 6% and US crude oil rose%.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Thursday that it expects global crude oil supply and demand to tighten in the next eight months due to the decline in Venezuelan production. UBS also stated that in view of the straight decline in Venezuela's crude oil supply, supply risks are already high, and the oil market should remain in short supply this year. If these risks are present, Venezuela’s oil production reduction is expected to be no less than Iran’s.
According to reports, the US announced on the 6th that crude oil inventories were reduced by 400,000 barrels and gasoline inventories were reduced by 800,000 barrels, which boosted oil prices. According to the report, London Capital Group analyst Jasper Lawler believes that oil prices have risen astonishingly because recent reports show that US exports have increased and future demand will slow down. These two factors should theoretically lower oil prices.
On Monday, June, Iraq joined Venezuela and Iran’s plan to oppose the slow increase in crude oil production. Iraqi Energy Minister Luaibi said that OPEC should resist increasing the supply of crude oil because the goal of reducing production has not been achieved and oil prices are still lower than expected. .
In the daily chart, 6 US dollars can be said to be a very critical point at present. Crude oil prices fell for the first time in the middle of the previous month, and the market stopped falling and rebounded at 6 US dollars. Therefore, the supporting role of this point is still very strong. Yes, and more importantly, although the current three-track Bollinger Bands operating trend is biased downward, the downward trend has actually slowed down significantly due to the recent rebound in oil prices. Moreover, the middle rail is almost coincident with the 6 line. If crude oil can break through this double pressure at the same time in the market outlook, it can enter the long space of the middle and upper rail, and the rally can be further extended to the previous 65-66 US dollars.
The continuous rise in the international oil market since the beginning of the month came to a halt in the production increase remarks made by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are parties to the production reduction agreement. International oil prices have entered a downward channel since late May. As of early June, European and American crude oil futures prices have fallen to 765 US dollarsElliot Wave Crude Oil Analysis. /Barrel runs near the price. In addition to the expected increase or decrease in oil-producing countries, the steady recovery of shale oil in the United States and continued high oil output are also one of the negative factors that suppress the trend of international crude oil.
Falih said recently that Saudi Arabia’s oil production this month was 0.7 million barrels per day and that it will increase production again this month. OPEC also pointed out in its monthly report that Libya also increased by 10,000 barrels per day in September, but due to the country's ongoing internal conflicts, oil production has also been affected by fluctuations, and it is still in the recovery phase.
At present, the European Union has announced that it will use the euro for settlement in oil transactions with Iran, and some countries have also chosen to use RMB for transactions. At present, more than 60 countries have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, and 28 countries have announced the use of RMB for trade settlement. The renminbi quickly rose to become the third largest international currency after the US dollar and the euro. The dominance of petrodollars is being shaken by the renminbi, the internationalization of the renminbi is gradually increasing, and the dollar is being abandoned by more and more countries.