As we all know, the market view is that if Trump tears up the Iran nuclear agreement and restarts sanctions on Iran, Iran will naturally not sit still. Since the Iran nuclear agreement has no effect and has lost its binding force, then Iran will naturally take up nuclear weapons again. To safeguard its own interests, the flashpoint of the chaos in the entire Middle East lies in Iran's resumption of nuclear weapons. Previously, the market wU.S. proven reserves of crude oil and natural gas, the end of 2018ould hardly think about one aspect, that is, Trump tearing up the Iran nuclear agreement, and Iran will continue to stay in the Iran nuclear agreement, because it seems impossible for Iran to do. But now Iran speaks that it might be possible. As soon as this remark comes out, all previous speculations will probably change drastically.
Williams said that both Saudi Arabia and Russia want to increase production to avoid the loss of oil market share in the long-term and give way to other resources. The higher the oil price, the more alternative products will be brought, the production efficiency will also be improved, and the output of shale oil in the United States will also increase sharply, which will have a long-term impact on OPEC oil market demand.
US investment bank Jefferies said in a report that it is expected that Iranian crude oil exports will begin to decline in the coming months. The bank predicts that Iran’s exports will fall by 500,000 barrels/day around October, and will eventually decrease by 0 million barrels/day. However, there are signs that other members of OPEC will increase production to fill the oil supply gap left by Iran.
At the same time, US West Texas Intermediate crude oil WTI futures rose by 5 US dollars to 597 US dollars, an increase of 6%, and touched the 60.0 US dollars in the intraday line, which is the highest level since June 205.
In addition to these two types of market participants, manufacturers also continue to downplay their existence. Lower inventory reduces the market's hedging demand, which may explain the new balance in the market. However, the decline in the number of long positions in crude oil futures far exceeds the decline in inventories.
This is the first and most important factor. You may have heard that crude oil has always been in a state of oversupply, and oil-producing countries are unwilling to reduce production. Although crude oil prices have fallen sharply, they have fallen below the production of many crude oil producers. Cost, but mU.S. proven reserves of crude oil and natural gas, the end of 2018ost crude oil producers continue to produce under pressure from losses.
Obviously, the impact of rising oil prices is raging around the world. The steadily rising oil prices not only ushered in the fifth consecutive round of increase in the price of refined oil products in the Mainland on the 25th of last month, but also recorded the largest increase this year. According to AAA data from the American Automobile Association, domestic gasoline prices in the United States have also risen by 2% in the past year.
Yesterday, according to Iranian media reports, the naval commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tongari, said on the 27th that Iran is in full control of the Persian Gulf and that Iran has full control over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz leading to the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is the most direct way to block oil transportation. Tongari said: We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf, and there is no need for foreign forces, such as the United States and countries not here.
As of press time, the spot crude oil price has risen above US$750 and hit a new high of US$775/barrel. From the daily chart, the crude oil price upward channel has been constructed, and the cross-star signal appears continuously in the upward trend, which strongly expresses the sentiment of technical bullish crude oil prices. At the same time, auxiliary indicators such as MACD all show signals that crude oil prices are entering the market.