Although US crude oil inventories have fallen, US crude oil production is expected to continue its upward trend. EIA predicts that by the fourth quarter of 209, US crude oil production may reach 2 million barrels per day, which will have a greater impact on international oil prices. From the data point of view, the U.S. crude oil export policy: background and considerationsU.S. crude oil production continues to rise, and it is already the world's second largest crude oil producer, second only to Russia. The rise in its shale oil production has put pressure on international oil prices. Jinyuan Futures analyst Huang Lei said in an interview with a reporter from the 2nd Century Business Herald.
Morgan Stanley on Tuesday revised up its oil distribution forecast for the next six months to $85/barrel, an increase of close to 0%, citing increasingly tight market supply and not much idle capacity. The bank believes that because the US government requires India and other countries to stop importing Iranian crude oil before this month, the increase in oil prices in the second half of the year will exceed previous expectations, so it raised its oil price forecast.
China Oil Network reported on June 8 that spot crude oil prices rebounded to above US$66. As Venezuelan crude oil production maintained a downward trend, international oil prices rose by nearly 2% overnight. The stabilization of oil prices may indicate that the current round of declines has ended.
After the plunge in oil prices, Russia and Central Asian countries have not reduced their exploration and development investment quotas. Compared with previous years, they have remained at about 25% of global investment quotas in the past decade. The United States began to reduce its investment quota to 24% due to the decline in oil prices. However, after the oil price rose in 207, it increased its investment quota, which currently accounts for about %. The recovery of the shale oil industry is very obvious. The United States, Russia, and Central Asia account for more than half of the total global crude oil investment. Other countries such as Africa, Latin America and the Middle East have relatively weaker investment. This is also caused by the OPEC production reduction effect. From the current point of view, the countries that dominate global crude oil production and supply should still be led by the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, forming a three-legged pattern.
According to reports from Ecuador, although the member states have reached consensus on production cuts and oil prices on February 5, it is difficult to reach a consensus on the basic mining volume and production cuts in each country. Ecuador’s Energy Minister Perez expressed the hope that the current output quota can be maintained.
When referring to Iran and VenezueU.S. crude oil export policy: background and considerationsla, analysts at Royal Bank of Canada said: These two oil-producing countries may lead to a crude oil supply gap of nearly 2 million barrels per day. We continue to be cautious that because of the risk of periodic interruptions in Libya and Nigeria, the supply gap may increase by 500,000 barrels per day, because the security situation in both countries is still fragile and the upcoming elections may bring more turmoil.
Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the widening oil price gap between the US and Burundi is the relationship between supply and demand and geographical factors. The chaotic situation in the Middle East has the most direct impact on the distribution of oil, because the crude oil in the Middle East and Europe is based on the distribution of oil as a pricing benchmark. However, geo-risks in the Middle East have limited boost to U.S. oil, and the risk premium has led to a significant increase in oil distribution.
This will affect the intensity, timing and pace of the adjustment of the U.S. monetary policy, and increase the complexity and difficulty of generating reasonable expectations for changes in the value of the U.S. dollar. It cannot be ruled out that the value of the U.S. dollar is due to unexpected factors or the cumulative effect of small events at a certain point in time. The changes that have taken place have resulted in a rapid revaluation or overshoot of the value of the U.S. dollar, forcing international oil prices to make a corresponding chain reaction, resulting in dramatic fluctuations. But on the whole, the United States is still in the interest rate hike cycle. The macroeconomic situation of the United States remains strong relative to major Western economies and emerging market countries. The U.S. dollar does not have room for substantial depreciation and has room for appreciation, which will restrain it. The rise in international oil prices.
The United States is a real big oil producer. According to data, as of the end of 208 months, US crude oil production reached 046 million barrels per day, an increase of 0% compared with last year, and exceeded the forecast of 0 million barrels per day. American oil producers are making every effort to attack the oil market.